Biden’s unwavering support for Israel may sabotage reelection bid

# Biden’s Unconditional Support for Israel: A Potential Pitfall for Re-election Chances

As the 2024 Presidential Elections in the United States draw nearer, President Joe Biden’s stance on international affairs, particularly his unwavering support for Israel, has become a subject of intense scrutiny. Recent polling data suggests that this could spell disaster for his chances of securing a second term in office.

The Polling Data Speaks

On the morning of November 5, 2023, the White House was confronted with unsettling news; a Siena College survey published by the New York Times indicated that former President Donald Trump, a favorite to win the Republican nomination, is leading President Joe Biden in five of the six pivotal swing states for the 2024 general election. According to the poll conducted with 3,662 registered voters between October 22 and November 3 of that year, Trump would easily win Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, while Biden prevails in Wisconsin by a meager two percentage points.

These findings underscore the dramatic erosion of President Biden’s electability, a quality that served as his strongest asset against his Democratic rivals back in 2020. Now, halfway through his term, the incumbent not only faces the prospect of losing to Trump but also to other top Republican contenders like former Governor Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

Voter Demographics and Their Discontent

The detailed results of the survey reveal a stark downturn in support from almost every voter segment except women. Particularly worrisome for the Biden administration is the sharp decline in voter intent among youths, Black Americans, and Latinos—demographics traditionally aligned with the Democratic Party and pivotal to his narrow victory against Trump in the past election.

A majority of participants in the survey feel that Biden’s policies have personally harmed them, and two-thirds have expressed the sentiment that the country is headed in the wrong direction under his leadership. Inflation and the economy emerge as the most critical issues influencing voters’ decisions for 2024, with the majority placing their confidence in Republicans rather than Democrats to manage these matters effectively.

Foreign Policy as a Deciding Factor

Whereas foreign policy issues have not played a dominant role in recent electoral cycles—the last time being the 2008 elections—current polling indicates that Biden’s direct involvement in the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, in addition to the border crisis with Mexico, could adversely impact his re-election bid.

Democratic pollster Terrance Woodbury highlighted the frustration of young and Black voters in focus groups, who are disgruntled by the government’s choice to send money abroad rather than invest in domestic needs. Additionally, a recent survey by the Arab American Institute showed that only 17% of Arab American voters would back Biden in 2024, compared to 59% in the 2020 elections. Biden’s approval rating within this demographic plummeted from 74% in 2020 to 29% in 2023, mirroring a broader disenchantment amongst the American populace.

The Road Ahead Looks Bleak for Biden

In anticipation of the 2024 general elections scheduled for November 5, many analysts claim that the current scenario for the Democratic president, who would run for re-election alongside current Vice President Kamala Harris, is “insurmountable.” The circumstances are reminiscent of the challenges faced by Jimmy Carter, the last Democratic president to lose a re-election bid.

The parallels evoke Carter’s struggles with high inflation, low growth, and foreign policy blunders that significantly damaged his re-election chances, culminating in a decisive defeat to Ronald Reagan. Similarly, Biden’s subpar economic numbers are further weakened by the US involvement in Ukraine and support for Israel at a time when both the international community and many voters have expressed concern over the indiscriminate loss of Palestinian lives in Gaza and oppose sending funds to Kiev.

Dr. Mauricio Alonso Estevez Daniel, a researcher at the Eurasian Studies Center at the Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana (UAM), suggests that Biden’s poor approval ratings could compel Democratic Party leaders to consider an alternative Presidential candidate for 2024, even if it bucks the tradition of incumbency.

The historical precedent reinforces this possibility: In 1968, President Lyndon B. Johnson’s unpopularity due to the ongoing Vietnam War led him to forego his re-election campaign, prompting Democrats to hastily nominate Vice President Hubert Humphrey. This decision, however, serves as a cautionary tale. Despite efforts to distance themselves from Johnson’s unpopular war, Democrats still suffered a significant loss to the Republican candidate, Richard Nixon.

The question looms, could history repeat itself in 2024? The answer might hinge on Democrats’ ability to navigate the turbulent waters of domestic disappointment and international disillusionment as they steer towards the upcoming elections.

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